The Last Battleground Polls Before Election Day: Tuesday November 3
With 0 days left before the US election day, we are summarizing the most important polls you should be tracking — all of the battleground states that will determine whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden win the presidential election. We're updating this page multiple times a day as new poll results are released.
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Monday November 2nd
The first polls for the 2020 Presidential Election will close in less than 36hours. Indiana and Kentucky both close at 6pm EST on November 3rd.
There are 3 key states that will determine the next president that we should all be watching in the next 2 days. This is in addition to the 13 battleground states below, which have seen some change in the last couple days.
Analysis: It's up to Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida
Biden needs an additional 38 electoral votes on top of the 232 from the states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Biden also hols clear leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, two states Trump won by less than a point in 2016. Those two states are worth a combined 26 electoral votes. Add to this Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, then Biden has 259 electoral votes.
That leave's 11 electoral votes for Biden to reach the 270 mark.
Florida is one key for both candidates. Whoever has won Florida has one the last 6 presidential elections, including 11 out of the last 12. This race is close with Biden currently having a slight edge so it is very possible that Trump is able to hold Florida.
Assuming that Trump may hold Georgia and North Carolina (which both show Biden with a slight lead but are within polling error ranges), then it would come to these two large key states: Pennsylvania and Arizona.
In this scenario, Trump would have to win both Pennsylvania and Arizona to hold onto the presidency. If Biden wins won of these — with the above assumptions — then he'll cross the 270 threshold. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes and Arizona has 11 electoral votes.
Take a look at the latest battleground polling numbers below.
US Battleground States Latest Polls
Updated Monday November 2, 8am PST
🔴 Texas: Trump +1.0 | Biden 47.5% | Trump 48.5%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔵 Florida: Biden +2.3 | Biden 48.9% | Trump 46.6%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔵 North Carolina: Biden +1.8 | Biden 48.8% | Trump 47%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔵 Georgia: Biden +1.3 | Biden 48.4% | Trump 47.1%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔴 Ohio: Trump +0.4 | Biden 47.1% | Trump 47.4%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔵 Michigan: Biden +8.1 | Biden 51.1% | Trump 43.0%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔵 Pennsylvania: Biden +5.1 | Biden 50.3% | Trump 45.2%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔵 Arizona: Biden +2.9 | Biden 48.6% | Trump 45.7%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔵 Wisconsin: Biden +8.2 | Biden 51.9% | Trump 43.7%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔵 Minnesota: Biden +9.3 | Biden 52.0% | Trump 42.6%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔴 Iowa: Trump +1.4 | Biden 46.0% | Trump 47.5%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔵 Nevada: Biden +4.9 | Biden 49.4% | Trump 44.5%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages
🔵 New Hampshire: Biden +10.9 | Biden 53.8% | Trump 42.9%
FiveThirtyEight Poll Averages